Carl Frampton vs. Scott Quigg will be 2016’s first PPV on SkySports on 27 February.
Boxing shows derive revenue from three sources:
Television (via foreign TV rights, advertising, subscribers or pay per view revenue)
Sponsorship (which is proportional to interest in the bout & card)
Gate receipts for the event are basically guaranteed to be on a sold out crowd at the Manchester Arena. The Arena is the largest by capacity in the United Kingdom (& 4th largest in Europe) with a maximum capacity of 21,000. Bare in mind allowing for the ring & access to that ring the maximum amount of people in the Manchester Arena on fight night is likely capped to more like 19,250 in reality. 3% or 578 of this will be made up of journalists, security staff, event staff, arena staff, special guests and other comped individuals. That leaves 18,672 in actual ticket sales.
Face value on entry level tickets will likely be in the order of £60. The remaining tickets might be priced £90, £120, £180 and £250 with £500 VIP packages going on a) past ticket prices for PPV events & b) the heightened interest in this bout.
VIP packages £500 * 1,000 = £500,000
Floor Seats £250 * 1,500 = £375,000
Floor Seats £180 * 2,500 = £450,000
Lower Tier £120 * 3,500 = £420,000
Mid Tier £90 * 4,500 = £405,000
Top Tier £60 * 5,672 = £340,320
Total Projected Gate Receipts = £2,490,320
Sponsorship for the event will do an estimated £400,000 given the trans-Irish Sea appeal of the bout. Expect a bidding war between Dafabet & PaddyPower for ring spread rights & blanket commercial coverage from various commercial entities throughout. Dafabet enjoy good relations with Matchroom due to their existing involvement with snooker but PaddyPower or another Irish bookmaker for that matter – Boyle Sports; Eir Bet; A McLean Bookmakers – are surely going to up the ante in the rush to gain commercial exposure from a bout that is going to be huge throughout Ireland.
For reference a League Two kit sponsorship costs around £50,000 (for the entire season); whilst sponsoring Manchester United’s kit costs around £53m-per-year which works out at £145,106.09 per day or £963,636.36 per match in a 55 (all league & cup) game year. Of course Manchester United have a global resonance which this bout doesn’t quite but £400,000 on £963,636.36 probably represents a proportional remuneration ratio to wider significance extracted by the sponsor.
Event Sponsorship = £400,000
Television revenue from Pay Per View is perhaps the most variable of all the revenue streams from this bout. Estimates vary widely from as low as 129,000 to as high as 600,000 PPV buys. If Bellew vs Cleverly 2 managed 365,000 buys – as is widely accepted it did do & Brook vs Gavin managed a well deserved (for a well balanced card) 255,000 then 325,000 plus (in the UK alone) would seem infinitely do-able. Add in Sky Ireland’s contribution – which could be substantial – and 525,000 total PPV buys seems entirely reachable for this promotion. Northern Ireland, itself, per capita are in recent times the UK’s biggest buyers of Pay Per View boxing programming – the effect of having their Golden Boy headlining a PPV card could mean significantly boosted numbers. Scotland are the second biggest buyers of PPV boxing on a proportionate basis and there should be heightened auxiliary interest in this card from there too.
If pricing is set at £17.95 then 525,000 buys including those in Ireland will mean PPV revenue of £9,423,750.
Foreign licencing of the event would appear a hard sell given the lack of significance of the bout outside of the United Kingdom & Ireland. Frampton’s involvement (and Al Haymon‘s signing off on it) is probably predicated on it being provided for free to the US although this remains to be confirmed. Non-American foreign TV rights could be expected to fetch another £250,000 – although even this might be seen as optimistic.
TV/PPV Revenue = £9,673,750
Total Projected All Source Event Income = £12,564,070
£12.6 million represents a massive domestic bout – as big as could happen outside of Khan vs Brook or Joshua vs Fury – but a true super fight transcends more than just one geographical border so I believe the fight falls well short of such status.
£12.6 million is less than many Premiership football matches televised on SkySports, though. Even on the soon to be obsolete 2012 TV rights deal with the Premier League Sky spend £6,609,195.40 per game for 116 matches each season. The average Premier League gate has this season thus far been 36,170 with mean gate receipts of around £1,510,097.5 (accounting for season ticket discounting) & effective sponsorship of around £444,363.60 (across both teams) for a total cost of £8,563,656.50 per Premiership match on average. Under the new Premiership TV deal which takes effect from next season the TV rights alone would be £11,047,619.04 or 87.93% of all source revenue from Frampton vs Quigg.
Frampton is 3 times the draw Quigg is in the United Kingdom as illustrated by the graph of Google search interest over time below. In Ireland there isn’t enough search volume on Quigg to even make a graph – let’s for arguments sake say Frampton is 50 times the draw Quigg is in Ireland. But Frampton needs Quigg as much as Quigg needs Frampton to make this fight happen.
Incredibly Northern Ireland is by far the area of the UK with the highest concentration of interest in Scott Quigg as noted below. This is another indication, were one needed, that Frampton is easily the A-side of this promotion.